Like any political organization, China’s Communists can be consumed by short-term priorities or trapped in bureaucratic entanglements, leading to decisions that sacrifice long-term benefits to immediate interests.
The Chinese government’s botched population policy is more than just an outlier, or a nuancing of a broader narrative: It tells us about how the Communist Party governs and exposes weaknesses that not only counter its reputation for strategic genius but also imperil China’s climb to global greatness. “Demographics is probably representative of one area of social policy in which are still trying to put forth the oldest possible ideas and thinking,” Mei Fong, the author of One Child: The Story of China’s Most Radical Experiment, told me. The measure was met with a collective yawn from analysts, who predict it will have little effect. Its latest attempt to address the issue, announced in May, was to lift the ceiling on the number of children each couple is permitted to have, from two to three. Like a deer caught in the headlights, the Communist Party has seemed paralyzed, unable to mount a response even as the aging express train runs it over. You’d expect Beijing’s officious planners to tackle this challenge the same way that they build high-speed railways or squash COVID-19 outbreaks-with the full zeal and heft of the state.
Experts have been ringing the alarm for years. If only American politicians and businessmen could see past the next election cycle or quarterly earnings report, the Chinese wouldn’t be eating our lunch.īut then there’s the curious case of China’s impending demographic disaster: The country is getting old, and quickly, which is threatening its economic progress. The oft-repeated compliment paid to China’s leaders is that they “play the long game.” Masters of strategic thinking, the narrative goes, Beijing’s top cadres are always looking far ahead-planning, preparing, and plotting for the future.
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